World Ahead 2023: More hot air
题材：环境类
出处：The Economist《经济学人》
字数：721 words
[1] What to expect from the global climate, and from climate diplomacy, in the coming year.
【在未来的一年，我们将从全球气候和气候外交中期待什么。】
[2] Recent months and years have been scarred by a series of extreme weather events on all continents, which have brought home the consequences of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. More such events will occur in 2023. With average global temperatures now 1.1-1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, many floods, droughts, wildfires and heat-waves will be made worse or more likely (or both) by climate change.
【最近几个月和几年，各大洲发生了一系列极端天气事件，这些事件使人们认识到大气中温室气体积聚的后果。2023年将发生更多此类事件。随着目前全球平均气温比工业化前的水平高出1.1-1.3摄氏度，许多洪水、干旱、野火和热浪将因气候变化而变得更糟或更有可能(或两者兼而有之)。】
【重点词汇】
diplomacy /dɪˈpləʊməsi/ n. 外交
drought /draʊt/ n. 干旱
[3] But although climate change is steadily raising average temperatures, natural sources of climate variability are also superimposed on that trend. One of the most powerful is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes the climate around the tropics to oscillate between two states, known as El Niño and La Niña. Roughly speaking, El Niño causes more rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific and droughts in Australasia, while La Niña is associated with droughts in east Africa, and more rainfall in west Africa and South Asia.
【但是，尽管气候变化正在稳步提高平均气温，但气候变化的自然来源也叠加在这一趋势上。其中最强大的是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)，它导致热带地区的气候在两种状态之间振荡，即厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜。粗略地说，厄尔尼诺现象在中太平洋和东太平洋造成了更多的降雨，在澳大拉西亚造成了干旱，而拉尼娜现象则与东非的干旱以及西非和南亚的降雨有关。】
【重点词汇】
variability /ˌveəriəˈbɪləti/ n. 可变性;易变性
superimpose /ˌsuːpərɪmˈpəʊz/ v. 使叠加
oscillate /ˈɒsɪleɪt/ v. 摆动
[4] Unusually, the current La Niña, which began in September 2020, in now in its third year—the first time this century that such a “triple dip” has occurred. Seasonal forecasts show a very strong likelihood that the rains will fail in east Africa towards the end of 2022, causing the drought and food scarcity in the region to deepen in 2023.
【不同寻常的是，当前的拉尼娜现象始于2020年9月，今年已经进入第三年，这是本世纪首次出现这种“三次探底”。季节性预测显示，2022年底东非地区很可能没有降雨，导致2023年该地区干旱和粮食短缺加剧。】
【重点词汇】
likelihood /ˈlaɪklihʊd/ n. 可能性
[5] Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change is an area of active research, but what is clear is that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend, and that La Niña years tend to be slightly cooler than average. If the current cycle is succeeded in 2023 by a neutral period, global average temperatures are likely to rise slightly. If it is followed by an El Niño, which turns the thermostat up, then global average temperatures will be nudged closer to the totemic 1.5°C target of the UN Paris agreement. That could lead to even more devastating extreme-weather events than those seen in recent years.
【ENSO周期是否以及如何受到气候变化的影响是一个活跃的研究领域，但很明显的是，这些周期处于总体变暖趋势的顶端，拉尼娜年往往比平均值略低。如果目前的周期在2023年被一个中性期取代，全球平均气温可能会略有上升。如果紧随其后的是厄尔尼诺现象，这会打开恒温器，那么全球平均气温将接近联合国巴黎协定中的1.5°C目标。这可能导致比近年来更具破坏性的极端天气事件。】
【重点词汇】
thermostat /ˈθɜːməstæt/ n. 恒温器
nudge /nʌdʒ/ v. (用肘)轻推，轻触;(朝某方向)轻推，渐渐推动
devastating /ˈdevəsteɪtɪŋ/ adj. 破坏性极强的
【长难句分析】
Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change is an area of active research, but what is clear is that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend, and that La Niña years tend to be slightly cooler than average.
主句：Whether and how… is an area of active research, but what is clear is that…
并列连词but连接两个复合句，所以整个句子是并列复合句。
主语从句1：Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change
主语从句2：what is clear
表语从句1：that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend
表语从句2：that La Niña years tend to be slightly cooler than average
[6] Curbing these devastating and costly events, and stabilising the climate by reducing global emissions, are the objectives of international climate negotiations, the latest round of which were held in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh in November 2022. The COP27 meeting came at a low point for climate diplomacy, at the end of a year overshadowed by the war in Ukraine and the related energy and food crises. Climate politics, which have often been treated somewhat separately from other geopolitical issues, were suddenly no longer isolated. Prioritising short-term energy security over longer-term emissions cuts has led to greater use of coal, for example.
【遏制这些破坏性和代价高昂的事件，通过减少全球排放来稳定气候，是国际气候谈判的目标，最近一轮谈判于2022年11月在埃及度假胜地沙姆沙伊赫举行。COP27会议正值气候外交的低谷，正值乌克兰战争以及相关能源和粮食危机笼罩的一年结束之际。气候政治通常与其他地缘政治问题在某种程度上被分开对待的，但突然之间，它不再是孤立的。例如，将短期能源安全置于长期减排之上，导致了煤炭的更多使用。】
【重点词汇】
curb /kɜːb/ v. 控制;抑制
stabilize (stablise) /ˈsteɪbəlaɪz/ v. (使)稳定，稳固
overshadow /ˌəʊvəˈʃædəʊ/ v. 给……蒙上阴影;使黯然失色
geopolitical /ˌdʒiːəʊpəˈlɪtɪkəl/ adj. 地缘政治学的
prioritize (prioritise) /praɪˈɒrətaɪz/ v. 按重要性排列;优先处理
[7] “The war has exploded tensions that were pre-existing,” says Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation, a lobby group. She says the war has “deconstructed” previous agreements that had survived political and military spats.
【游说团体欧洲气候基金会(European Climate Foundation)负责人劳伦斯·图比亚纳(Laurence Tubiana)表示：“这场战争引爆了原本就存在的紧张局势。”她说，这场战争“解构”了之前在政治和军事冲突中幸存下来的协议。】
【重点词汇】
tension /ˈtenʃn/ n. 紧张局势或关系
deconstruct /ˌdiːkənˈstrʌkt/ v. 解构
spat /spæt/ n. 小争吵;口角
[8] The next round of talks, in November 2023, will take place in the United Arab Emirates. It is a controversial setting. The UAE’s climate envoy, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, is a government minister who also heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the UAE’s state-owned oil producer. He has spoken publicly and privately about his belief that oil and gas will continue to play a role in a net-zero carbon economy, and that oil and gas companies must be “active partners” in the global energy transformation. Expect a big argument about whether he is right.
【下一轮会谈将于2023年11月在阿拉伯联合酋长国举行。这是一个有争议的环境。阿联酋气候特使苏尔坦·本·艾哈迈德·贾贝尔(Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber)是一位政府部长，同时也是阿联酋国有石油生产商阿布扎比国家石油公司(Abu Dhabi National Oil Company)的负责人。他曾公开和私下谈论过自己的信念，即石油和天然气将继续在净零碳经济中发挥作用，石油和天然公司必须成为全球能源转型的“积极合作伙伴”。预计会有一场关于他是否正确的大辩论。】
【重点词汇】
controversial /ˌkɒntrəˈvɜːʃl/ adj. 引起争论的;有争议的
envoy /ˈenvɔɪ/ n. (谈判的)代表
transformation /ˌtrænsfəˈmeɪʃn/ n. 改观;改革
[9] On the one hand, it seems likely that some fossil fuels will still be burned in mid-century, even if global net-zero is reached. Electrifying cars and trains will be relatively simple; decarbonising aviation and shipping will be harder. Using some fossil fuels, and balancing the resulting emissions with carbon capture elsewhere, may be the least bad option.
【一方面，即使全球实现净零排放，一些化石燃料似乎仍有可能在本世纪中叶被燃烧。汽车和火车的电气化将相对简单，而航空和航运的脱碳将更加困难。使用一些化石燃料，并在由此产生的排放与其他地方的碳捕获之间取得平衡，可能是最不糟糕的选择。】
【重点词汇】
fossil /ˈfɒsl/ n. 化石
electrify /ɪˈlektrɪfaɪ/ v. 使电气化
decarbonize (decarbonise) /ˌdiːˈkɑːbənaɪz/ v. 脱去……的碳
[10] On the other hand, limiting warming to 1.5-2°C, as set out in the Paris agreement, will require a dramatic reduction in fossil-fuel use, so that oil and gas end up playing only a marginal role in the global energy sector. The International Energy Agency has called for no new fossil-fuel development in order to meet net-zero targets. The uae’s climate summit will prompt a vigorous debate about the role of oil companies in the energy transition, and whether they really can be part of the solution, not just part of the problem.
【另一方面，按照巴黎协定的规定，将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度至2摄氏度以内，将需要大幅减少化石燃料的使用，这样石油和天然气最终在全球能源部门中只会扮演微不足道的角色。国际能源署呼吁不再开发新的化石燃料，以实现净零排放目标。阿联酋气候峰会将引发一场激烈的辩论，主题是石油公司在能源转型中扮演的角色，以及它们是否真的能成为解决方案的一部分，而不仅仅是问题的一部分。】
【重点词汇】
dramatic /drəˈmætɪk/ adj. 巨大的;令人吃惊的
marginal /ˈmɑːdʒɪnl/ adj. 微不足道的
sector /ˈsektə(r)/ n. 部门;领域
vigorous /ˈvɪɡərəs/ adj. 充满活力的
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